As NATO leaders gather in Ankara for its 2026 summit on July 7-8, a clear shift in regional power dynamics is on display. Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is leveraging its hosting role and close ties with U.S. President Donald Trump to reclaim prominence, even as Israel contends with diplomatic strains and security concerns following the recent U.S.-Israel war with Iran. At the heart of the tension lies Trump’s openness to restore Turkey’s access to advanced American weaponry, including F-35 fighter jets—a prospect that Israeli and Greek leaders view as a direct threat to the regional balance of power.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not minced words in opposing the move. In an interview with Fox News, he argued forcefully against arming Ankara. “I don’t think they should be given F-35s or engines for their fighter jets,” Netanyahu stated, explaining that such a sale would “upset the balance of power in the Middle East, which is ultimately guaranteed by Israel’s air superiority and also America’s posture in the Middle East.” He characterized Turkey as “a regime infected by the Muslim Brotherhood, an extreme movement that hates America and chants ‘Death to America,’” while noting Erdogan’s threats against Israel and occupation of northern Cyprus (The Times of Israel; The Jerusalem Post).
Trump’s response during his warm arrival in Ankara on July 7 underscored the personal rapport between the two leaders. Greeted by Erdogan with military honors and a red carpet, Trump described Turkey as “much more loyal than other countries” and confirmed he would “certainly consider” the F-35 sale. He praised Erdogan as a “very strong leader” and highlighted Turkey’s restraint during the Iran conflict, despite its fraught relationship with Israel. This stance aligns with Trump’s broader frustration toward European NATO allies, whom he accused of failing to support US efforts against Iran. “We weren’t treated well because we did something in Iran,” Trump remarked, and then suggested he might have skipped the summit without Erdogan’s invitation. (Breitbart).
These developments unfold against a backdrop of eroding Israeli confidence in U.S. priorities. A June poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, reported on July 7, found that only 28% of Israelis believe Trump prioritizes their security—a record low compared to 44% in May. Nevertheless, Netanyahu has worked to downplay any personal rift with Trump. “My relationship with the president is fine,” he affirmed. “We see eye-to-eye on just about everything. . . We are allies.” He also pushed back against Vice President J.D. Vance’s claim that Trump is Israel’s only friend, pointing to robust support from nations like India and quiet outreach from other leaders seeking defense and technological cooperation. “We have many, many friends,” Netanyahu insisted (The Jerusalem Post; The Times of Israel).
The F-35 controversy is compounded by parallel moves that alarm Israel’s partners. French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Damascus on July 6—the first by a French leader in 17 years—signaled renewed European engagement with Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Macron expressed commitment to “a sovereign Syria, united in its diversity and at peace with its neighbors,” while reports emerged of France dropping opposition to selling the SAMP/T air defense system to Turkey. This shift worries Greece, which fears a disruption in the Aegean military balance and is, therefore, advancing its Israeli-supported “Achilles Shield” air defense project. Greek analyst Vassilis Nedos emphasized Athens’ longstanding concerns to Washington: “The possibility of Turkey acquiring F-35s is certainly not a welcome one” (Israel Hayom; The Jerusalem Post).
Maritime security adds urgency to these tensions. On July 7, a third vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours, including a Qatari tanker that Doha explicitly blamed on Iran. Netanyahu, visiting a naval base in Haifa, vowed that Israel would safeguard freedom of navigation. These incidents, occurring after a fragile US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU), highlight the precarious post-war environment. Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed Israel’s resolve on Iran: “Deal or no deal, as long as I’m prime minister, Iran will not have nuclear weapons” (The Times of Israel).
Turkey’s resurgence reflects successful diplomacy. Once isolated, Erdogan has mended ties with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and others while positioning Ankara as a mediator in Gaza and Iran-related talks. Hosting the NATO summit amplifies this influence, even amid domestic protests that led to over 100 arrests of communists opposing the alliance. For Trump, Turkey represents reliability in a region where European allies have disappointed him on burden-sharing (Axios; Breitbart).
Yet for Israel, the picture is more challenging. The Iran war and subsequent MoU, negotiated without direct Israeli input, have left Jerusalem feeling sidelined. Relations with Turkey remain deeply strained due to Erdogan’s rhetoric and support for Hamas since October 7, 2023. Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and others have condemned Turkish statements as incitement. While Netanyahu emphasizes enduring US-Israel bonds—“America has no greater ally than Israel and Israel has no greater ally than the United States”—the summit highlights the need for Israel to diversify partnerships and protect its qualitative military edge (The Times of Israel).
In this fluid landscape, pragmatic realpolitik appears to be guiding U.S. policy decisions. Trump’s emphasis on loyalty and transactional deals elevates Turkey’s role but tests longstanding alliances. As NATO grapples with internal divisions and the Middle East navigates fragile ceasefires, Israel’s strategy of resilience, technological superiority, and outreach to diverse friends will be vital. The coming days in Ankara may further clarify whether these shifts strengthen collective security or introduce new vulnerabilities in an already volatile region.
Dr. Matthew Dodd, Executive Director | July 7, 2026